| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.18814763010543 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 475 | 473 | 2 |
| 3 | 552 | 473.376295260211 | 78.6237047397892 |
| 4 | 530 | 488.169158977111 | 41.8308410228888 |
| 5 | 525 | 496.039532580885 | 28.9604674191153 |
| 6 | 548 | 501.488375892537 | 46.5116241074633 |
| 7 | 487 | 510.239427740711 | -23.2394277407105 |
| 8 | 483 | 505.866984486289 | -22.8669844862894 |
| 9 | 550 | 501.564615547536 | 48.4353844524636 |
| 10 | 528 | 510.677618345513 | 17.3223816544872 |
| 11 | 560 | 513.936783401586 | 46.0632165984136 |
| 12 | 546 | 522.603468439611 | 23.396531560389 |
| 13 | 521 | 527.005470405385 | -6.00547040538504 |
| 14 | 507 | 525.875555380944 | -18.8755553809435 |
| 15 | 596 | 522.324164369095 | 73.6758356309048 |
| 16 | 520 | 536.186098239087 | -16.1860982390872 |
| 17 | 590 | 533.140722214749 | 56.8592777852507 |
| 18 | 568 | 543.83866057955 | 24.1613394204495 |
| 19 | 503 | 548.384559331681 | -45.384559331681 |
| 20 | 515 | 539.845562050046 | -24.8455620500459 |
| 21 | 529 | 535.170928431692 | -6.17092843169235 |
| 22 | 573 | 534.009882871719 | 38.9901171282808 |
| 23 | 590 | 541.345781006938 | 48.6542189930616 |
| 24 | 529 | 550.499957005114 | -21.4999570051135 |
| 25 | 524 | 546.454791047233 | -22.4547910472328 |
| 26 | 516 | 542.229975327183 | -26.2299753271833 |
| 27 | 598 | 537.29486763165 | 60.7051323683502 |
| 28 | 532 | 548.716394421991 | -16.7163944219913 |
| 29 | 582 | 545.571244427586 | 36.428755572414 |
| 30 | 573 | 552.425228456226 | 20.5747715437744 |
| 31 | 535 | 556.296322962147 | -21.2963229621473 |
| 32 | 538 | 552.289470266859 | -14.2894702668594 |
| 33 | 554 | 549.600940300688 | 4.39905969931215 |
| 34 | 590 | 550.428612957806 | 39.5713870421943 |
| 35 | 607 | 557.873875649779 | 49.1261243502207 |
| 36 | 529 | 567.116839522538 | -38.1168395225379 |
| 37 | 563 | 559.945246499263 | 3.05475350073664 |
| 38 | 562 | 560.519991130983 | 1.48000886901673 |
| 39 | 593 | 560.798451292224 | 32.2015487077762 |
| 40 | 588 | 566.857096367316 | 21.1429036326836 |
| 41 | 576 | 570.835083579353 | 5.1649164206467 |
| 42 | 558 | 571.806850363591 | -13.8068503635906 |
| 43 | 543 | 569.209124188461 | -26.2091241884607 |
| 44 | 494 | 564.277939585263 | -70.2779395852629 |
| 45 | 585 | 551.055311803603 | 33.9446881963969 |
| 46 | 586 | 557.441924442423 | 28.558075557577 |
| 47 | 553 | 562.815058678953 | -9.81505867895282 |
| 48 | 541 | 560.968378649162 | -19.9683786491621 |
| 49 | 506 | 557.211375529274 | -51.2113755292744 |
| 50 | 500 | 547.576076589002 | -47.5760765890021 |
| 51 | 570 | 538.624750529067 | 31.3752494709331 |
| 52 | 541 | 544.52792936099 | -3.52792936098956 |
| 53 | 544 | 543.86415781254 | 0.135842187460071 |
| 54 | 545 | 543.889716198179 | 1.1102838018212 |
| 55 | 552 | 544.098613464236 | 7.90138653576412 |
| 56 | 460 | 545.585240615487 | -85.5852406154869 |
| 57 | 526 | 529.48258042168 | -3.48258042168004 |
| 58 | 569 | 528.827341168689 | 40.1726588313106 |
| 59 | 549 | 536.385731722834 | 12.6142682771656 |
| 60 | 525 | 538.759076404697 | -13.7590764046972 |
| 61 | 473 | 536.170338786714 | -63.1703387867138 |
| 62 | 498 | 524.284989251036 | -26.2849892510364 |
| 63 | 582 | 519.339530816107 | 62.6604691838927 |
| 64 | 573 | 531.128949594351 | 41.8710504056489 |
| 65 | 528 | 539.006888498199 | -11.0068884981989 |
| 66 | 571 | 536.935968512428 | 34.0640314875719 |
| 67 | 518 | 543.345035308652 | -25.3450353086515 |
| 68 | 483 | 538.57642698039 | -55.5764269803904 |
| 69 | 551 | 528.119853954302 | 22.8801460456976 |
| 70 | 562 | 532.424699209266 | 29.5753007907335 |
| 71 | 580 | 537.989221962698 | 42.0107780373017 |
| 72 | 515 | 545.893450289302 | -30.8934502893018 |
| 73 | 492 | 540.08092083159 | -48.0809208315897 |
| 74 | 509 | 531.034609523839 | -22.0346095238392 |
| 75 | 601 | 526.88884996163 | 74.1111500383697 |
| 76 | 579 | 540.832687205738 | 38.1673127942624 |
| 77 | 561 | 548.013776655471 | 12.9862233445293 |
| 78 | 537 | 550.457103801764 | -13.4571038017637 |
| 79 | 513 | 547.925181613379 | -34.925181613379 |
| 80 | 499 | 541.35409146182 | -42.35409146182 |
| 81 | 563 | 533.38526952801 | 29.6147304719901 |
| 82 | 561 | 538.957210882526 | 22.0427891174741 |
| 83 | 546 | 543.104509415892 | 2.89549058410762 |
| 84 | 558 | 543.649289107285 | 14.3507108927151 |
| 85 | 507 | 546.349341352077 | -39.3493413520774 |
| 86 | 517 | 538.945856030474 | -21.9458560304745 |
| 87 | 544 | 534.816795227706 | 9.18320477229429 |
| 88 | 529 | 536.544593442386 | -7.54459344238569 |
| 89 | 557 | 535.125096066092 | 21.8749039339082 |
| 90 | 532 | 539.240807400041 | -7.24080740004058 |
| 91 | 512 | 537.878466647673 | -25.8784666476731 |
| 92 | 488 | 533.009494477151 | -45.009494477151 |
| 93 | 518 | 524.541064759032 | -6.54106475903154 |
| 94 | 567 | 523.310378926254 | 43.6896210737464 |
| 95 | 537 | 531.530477591483 | 5.46952240851681 |
| 96 | 484 | 532.559555270454 | -48.5595552704542 |
| 97 | 487 | 523.423190027345 | -36.4231900273446 |
| 98 | 484 | 516.57025314282 | -32.57025314282 |
| 99 | 534 | 510.442237202064 | 23.5577627979355 |
| 100 | 514 | 514.874574443082 | -0.874574443081883 |
| 101 | 523 | 514.710025334265 | 8.28997466573469 |
| 102 | 489 | 516.269764421257 | -27.2697644212574 |
| 103 | 495 | 511.139022871864 | -16.1390228718644 |
| 104 | 468 | 508.102503966306 | -40.1025039663058 |
| 105 | 513 | 500.557312883752 | 12.4426871162483 |
| 106 | 544 | 502.898374976817 | 41.1016250231828 |
| 107 | 520 | 510.631548318411 | 9.36845168158891 |
| 108 | 509 | 512.394200300059 | -3.39420030005931 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 511.7555895575 | 444.874095498229 | 578.637083616771 |
| 110 | 511.7555895575 | 443.700603694689 | 579.810575420311 |
| 111 | 511.7555895575 | 442.547006607302 | 580.964172507698 |
| 112 | 511.7555895575 | 441.41232543675 | 582.09885367825 |
| 113 | 511.7555895575 | 440.295659104493 | 583.215520010507 |
| 114 | 511.7555895575 | 439.196175877842 | 584.315003237157 |
| 115 | 511.7555895575 | 438.113106120813 | 585.398072994187 |
| 116 | 511.7555895575 | 437.045735991121 | 586.465443123879 |
| 117 | 511.7555895575 | 435.99340193665 | 587.51777717835 |
| 118 | 511.7555895575 | 434.955485870825 | 588.555693244174 |
| 119 | 511.7555895575 | 433.931410927263 | 589.579768187737 |
| 120 | 511.7555895575 | 432.920637710885 | 590.590541404115 |
