Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.03393249138588 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 99.84 | 99.44 | 0.400000000000006 |
4 | 100.3 | 100.233572996554 | 0.0664270034456393 |
5 | 100.38 | 100.695827030277 | -0.315827030276552 |
6 | 100.02 | 100.765110232292 | -0.745110232292262 |
7 | 99.83 | 100.379826785753 | -0.549826785753481 |
8 | 100.36 | 100.171169793082 | 0.188830206917828 |
9 | 100.74 | 100.707577272452 | 0.0324227275481803 |
10 | 100.49 | 101.088677456375 | -0.598677456375043 |
11 | 100.33 | 100.818362838744 | -0.488362838743669 |
12 | 99.96 | 100.641791470925 | -0.681791470924821 |
13 | 100.08 | 100.248656587711 | -0.1686565877107 |
14 | 100.54 | 100.362933649501 | 0.177066350498976 |
15 | 101.63 | 100.828941951914 | 0.80105804808592 |
16 | 102.12 | 101.94612384723 | 0.173876152769679 |
17 | 102.19 | 102.442023898286 | -0.25202389828641 |
18 | 101.77 | 102.503472099529 | -0.733472099528768 |
19 | 101.29 | 102.05858356383 | -0.768583563829708 |
20 | 101.47 | 101.552503608671 | -0.0825036086707485 |
21 | 102.07 | 101.72970405568 | 0.340295944319777 |
22 | 102.11 | 102.341251144879 | -0.231251144879494 |
23 | 102.26 | 102.373404217398 | -0.1134042173979 |
24 | 101.83 | 102.519556129768 | -0.689556129767922 |
25 | 102.11 | 102.066157772334 | 0.0438422276655075 |
26 | 102.8 | 102.347645448347 | 0.452354551652903 |
27 | 103.82 | 103.052994965274 | 0.767005034725585 |
28 | 104.2 | 104.099021357008 | 0.100978642991848 |
29 | 104.57 | 104.482447813942 | 0.0875521860583461 |
30 | 104.38 | 104.855418677741 | -0.475418677740876 |
31 | 104.54 | 104.649286537554 | -0.109286537553743 |
32 | 104.74 | 104.80557817306 | -0.0655781730596345 |
33 | 105.19 | 105.003352942267 | 0.186647057732827 |
34 | 104.95 | 105.459686341946 | -0.509686341945894 |
35 | 104.57 | 105.202391414538 | -0.632391414538318 |
36 | 103.81 | 104.800932798312 | -0.990932798311974 |
37 | 104.08 | 104.007307979669 | 0.0726920203307202 |
38 | 104.81 | 104.279774601023 | 0.530225398977024 |
39 | 105.86 | 105.027766469806 | 0.832233530193662 |
40 | 106.1 | 106.106006226901 | -0.00600622690068064 |
41 | 106.24 | 106.345802420658 | -0.105802420658108 |
42 | 105.87 | 106.482212280931 | -0.612212280930507 |
43 | 104.74 | 106.091438392982 | -1.35143839298152 |
44 | 105.03 | 104.915580721353 | 0.114419278646892 |
45 | 105.59 | 105.20946325254 | 0.380536747459814 |
46 | 105.69 | 105.782375812445 | -0.0923758124453826 |
47 | 105.58 | 105.879241270985 | -0.299241270985306 |
48 | 104.96 | 105.759087269135 | -0.799087269135299 |
49 | 104.93 | 105.111972247259 | -0.181972247258784 |
50 | 105.68 | 105.075797475546 | 0.604202524453783 |
51 | 106.93 | 105.846299572503 | 1.08370042749742 |
52 | 107.29 | 107.133072227924 | 0.156927772076486 |
53 | 107.25 | 107.498397178198 | -0.248397178197706 |
54 | 106.74 | 107.449968443088 | -0.709968443088229 |
55 | 106.44 | 106.915877445009 | -0.475877445008891 |
56 | 106.6 | 106.599729737705 | 0.000270262294606027 |
57 | 107.26 | 106.759738908378 | 0.500261091621638 |
58 | 107.35 | 107.436714013561 | -0.086714013560524 |
59 | 107.22 | 107.523771591042 | -0.303771591042334 |
60 | 106.99 | 107.383463864146 | -0.393463864146028 |
61 | 106.87 | 107.140112654965 | -0.270112654965217 |
62 | 107.68 | 107.010947059627 | 0.669052940372595 |
63 | 108.9 | 107.843649692763 | 1.0563503072367 |
64 | 109.48 | 109.099494290464 | 0.380505709535925 |
65 | 109.57 | 109.692405797175 | -0.12240579717519 |
66 | 109.03 | 109.778252263517 | -0.748252263516946 |
67 | 109.58 | 109.212862200031 | 0.367137799969299 |
68 | 109.76 | 109.775320100266 | -0.0153201002655834 |
69 | 110.15 | 109.954800251095 | 0.195199748904699 |
70 | 110.2 | 110.351423864894 | -0.15142386489353 |
71 | 109.86 | 110.396285675902 | -0.53628567590242 |
72 | 109.58 | 110.038088166824 | -0.458088166824481 |
73 | 109.52 | 109.74254409405 | -0.222544094049738 |
74 | 110.35 | 109.674992618495 | 0.675007381504585 |
75 | 111.61 | 110.527897300654 | 1.08210269934628 |
76 | 112.06 | 111.824615741178 | 0.235384258822066 |
77 | 111.9 | 112.282602915513 | -0.382602915512777 |
78 | 111.36 | 112.109620245378 | -0.74962024537794 |
79 | 112.09 | 111.544183762859 | 0.54581623714104 |
80 | 112.24 | 112.292704667624 | -0.0527046676240417 |
81 | 112.7 | 112.440916266944 | 0.25908373305613 |
82 | 113.36 | 112.909707623484 | 0.450292376515961 |
83 | 112.9 | 113.584987165671 | -0.684987165671274 |
84 | 112.74 | 113.101743844573 | -0.361743844572715 |
85 | 112.77 | 112.929468974683 | -0.159468974682852 |
86 | 113.66 | 112.954057795073 | 0.705942204926899 |
87 | 114.87 | 113.868012172861 | 1.00198782713929 |
88 | 114.97 | 115.112012116174 | -0.142012116173888 |
89 | 115 | 115.207193291265 | -0.207193291265114 |
90 | 114.57 | 115.230162706694 | -0.660162706694052 |
91 | 115.54 | 114.777761741336 | 0.762238258664141 |
92 | 115.39 | 115.773626384482 | -0.383626384481985 |
93 | 115.46 | 115.610608985495 | -0.150608985495154 |
94 | 115.13 | 115.675498447392 | -0.545498447392205 |
95 | 114.56 | 115.326988326025 | -0.766988326025043 |
96 | 114.62 | 114.730962501259 | -0.110962501259138 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
97 | 114.787197267141 | 113.782498408098 | 115.791896126184 |
98 | 114.954394534282 | 113.509228069151 | 116.399560999413 |
99 | 115.121591801423 | 113.321707509629 | 116.921476093217 |
100 | 115.288789068564 | 113.175739998334 | 117.401838138794 |
101 | 115.455986335705 | 113.054526496332 | 117.857446175078 |
102 | 115.623183602846 | 112.949607917604 | 118.296759288088 |
103 | 115.790380869987 | 112.856050682856 | 118.724711057118 |
104 | 115.957578137128 | 112.770699729123 | 119.144456545133 |
105 | 116.124775404269 | 112.691404977744 | 119.558145830795 |
106 | 116.29197267141 | 112.616631372672 | 119.967313970148 |
107 | 116.459169938551 | 112.545243261039 | 120.373096616063 |
108 | 116.626367205692 | 112.476376587625 | 120.776357823759 |