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Opgave 10 oefening 2

*Unverified author*
R Software Module: /rwasp_exponentialsmoothing.wasp (opens new window with default values)
Title produced by software: Exponential Smoothing
Date of computation: Thu, 30 Dec 2010 13:23:30 +0000
 
Cite this page as follows:
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/30/t1293715362inkombnxz2b6cr0.htm/, Retrieved Fri, 24 May 2013 01:02:04 +0000
 
Original text written by user:
 
IsPrivate?
No (this computation is public)
 
User-defined keywords:
KDGP2W102
 
System-generated keywords (parent):
(pk = 0)
Estimated Impact
38
 
Dataseries X:
» Textfile « » CSV « » Stem and Leaf « » Histogram « » Kernel Density « » Harrell-Davis Quantiles « » Central Tendency « » Variability «
 
Output produced by software:


Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time2 seconds
R Server'Herman Ole Andreas Wold' @ www.yougetit.org


Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing
ParameterValue
alpha0.0694418538538814
beta0.0955451383637313
gamma0.274997599946921


Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing
tObservedFittedResiduals
131502814321.6838979972706.316102002787
141797717069.4160535447907.583946455306
152000819050.8439326332957.156067366803
162135420594.1425361458759.85746385418
171949819004.128834788493.871165211971
182212521757.4644496887367.535550311321
192581724290.91202996251526.0879700375
202877925468.28392467463310.71607532535
212096023042.1510861182-2082.15108611822
222225424523.2293633099-2269.2293633099
232739228844.5021876792-1452.50218767915
242994531899.8676637324-1954.86766373242
251693316195.4241625049737.575837495142
261789219314.2164644429-1422.21646444291
272053321332.8072665367-799.807266536678
282356922812.419292281756.580707718975
292241720958.65302350911458.34697649086
302208423985.8132815679-1901.81328156789
312658026864.8774314884-284.877431488352
322745428432.6130081043-978.613008104294
332408123975.6887334772105.311266522775
342345125609.0416780825-2158.04167808247
352899130404.3283513062-1413.3283513062
363138633461.1532316215-2075.15323162147
371689617419.810174207-523.810174207032
382004519987.123180556657.876819443376
392347122355.33641719551115.66358280452
402174724450.3230768301-2703.32307683013
412562122387.30439160713233.69560839292
422385924738.742002527-879.742002527011
432550028245.7536118687-2745.75361186865
443099829465.55796526721532.44203473282
452447525204.5483869939-729.548386993894
462314526197.9138248614-3052.91382486144
472970131277.8847142151-1576.88471421506
483436534202.1348333372162.865166662828
491755618008.2840409601-452.284040960138
502207720811.98015589561265.01984410444
512570223622.37532126732079.62467873271
522221424825.2539082843-2611.25390828432
532688624240.38227317662645.6177268234
542319125513.7939720525-2322.7939720525
552783128509.5071560244-678.5071560244
563540631036.41574288264369.58425711737
572319526154.496343106-2959.49634310599
582511026383.7491860897-1273.74918608966
593000932191.5348743202-2182.53487432016
603624235640.0309609682601.969039031806
611845018627.017577872-177.017577872048
622184522015.8478416554-170.847841655421
632648825017.02076434221470.97923565783
642239424940.6931600334-2546.69316003338
652805725704.26220337362352.73779662641
662545125647.0675347378-196.067534737773
672487229319.6100640472-4447.61006404716
683342432916.938012254507.061987745998
692405225720.7217749869-1668.72177498689
702844926433.79170391382015.20829608625
713353332331.25839854111201.74160145888
723735136839.8832867459511.116713254072
731996919112.5405429888856.459457011177
742170122683.3965436547-982.396543654671
752624926141.2192762621107.780723737924
762449324890.2002096102-397.200209610186
772460327118.6424433366-2515.64244333658
782648526022.1427589437462.857241056325
793072328656.15716949562066.84283050439
803456934157.4229120796411.577087920385
812668926144.2061451959544.793854804131
822615728046.0223252544-1889.02232525437
833206433630.5021480142-1566.50214801419
843887037851.11226958711018.88773041295
852133719799.21535936381537.7846406362
861941923019.9230621463-3600.92306214629
872316626616.3935327637-3450.39353276375
882828624930.64602521913355.35397478092
892457026876.3395178581-2306.33951785808
902400126530.51676962-2529.51676962
913315129337.84479168953813.15520831049
922487834540.161023167-9662.16102316701
932680425877.5979925023926.402007497702
942896727079.87488187551887.12511812446
953331132890.1166771892420.883322810798
964022637812.60643254162413.39356745841
972050420053.1493755979450.85062440205
982306021813.58043826071246.41956173927
992356225774.3256813748-2212.32568137482
1002756225905.01923682241656.98076317764
1012394026263.6975520913-2323.69755209127
1022458425838.5323099926-1254.53230999264
1033430330346.08753203263956.91246796743
1042551732052.1394602351-6535.13946023508
1052349426286.2661739538-2792.26617395383
1062909527447.75363698251647.24636301752
1073290332813.071367803189.9286321968684
1083437938150.9680680047-3771.96806800469
1091699119758.4569672235-2767.45696722354
1102110921370.734664652-261.734664651962
1112374024135.5985914489-395.598591448877
1122555225253.8254327628298.174567237234
1132175224445.4639142612-2693.46391426115
1142029424178.5015986717-3884.50159867166
1152900929342.9348101488-333.934810148752
1162550027983.8777426644-2483.87774266444
1172416623648.7372295099517.26277049015
1182696025908.38833058191051.61166941807
1193122230365.2567014461856.743298553884
1203864134310.49058138794330.50941861207
1211467217809.3649304867-3137.36493048673
1221754319821.1469914741-2278.14699147414
1232545322127.7322462213325.26775377896
1243268323538.71017075899144.28982924112
1252244922655.5325845493-206.532584549277
1262231622283.745997153432.2540028465628
1272759528516.2649897776-921.264989777639
1282545126667.099981965-1216.09998196495
1292542123316.88068623672104.11931376332
1302528825860.9884555389-572.98845553894
1313256830156.94502865382411.05497134623
1323511035137.5427455489-27.5427455488971
1331605216751.0333770975-699.033377097487
1342214619190.12975990362955.87024009641
1352119823460.954716575-2262.95471657499
1361954326002.1866122241-6459.18661222411
1372208421756.9413852293327.058614770725
1382381621470.4519348252345.54806517496
1392996127431.69911974662529.30088025342
1402677325798.3488840879974.65111591213
1412663523508.62052864863126.37947135138
1422697225452.6853844271519.31461557297
1433020730688.9221083319-481.922108331928
1443868734849.2883346563837.71166534397
1451697416598.4923302349375.507669765077
1462169720108.96942578251588.03057421751
1472417922998.37441568181180.62558431819
1482375724772.5356251825-1015.53562518251
1492501322670.95899606562342.04100393441
1502401923159.1013325659859.898667434092
1513034529448.94161429896.058385710039
1522448827314.5296019602-2826.52960196018
1532515625312.0172500213-156.017250021254
1542565026713.8727180966-1063.87271809665
1553092331428.21764374-505.217643740001
1563724036888.5310577561351.468942243853
1571746617085.1903514527380.809648547252
1581946321009.6602130812-1546.66021308122
1592435223607.1702664655744.82973353445
1602680524793.50598754652011.49401245346
1612523623744.60055421531491.39944578473
1622473523797.7173186204937.282681379598
1632935630221.1128114769-865.112811476898
1643123426957.45293596364276.54706403644
1652272426134.9080071044-3410.90800710437
1662849627126.82892123591369.17107876414
1673285732354.7527072292502.247292770757
1683719838367.5698422472-1169.56984224721
1691365217800.497034701-4148.49703470101
1702278420965.81677010091818.18322989905
1712356524491.8262396236-926.826239623639
1722632325922.5372462624400.462753737571
1732377924594.0510975169-815.051097516913
1742754924320.1342463673228.86575363305
1752966030540.1221802575-880.122180257495
1762335628536.6697519588-5180.66975195879


Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing
tForecast95% Lower Bound95% Upper Bound
17725038.050350782923551.113597143726524.9871044221
17827444.625684773525909.658362064728979.5930074824
17932268.879600274930651.7847464133885.9744541398
18037697.628284532235959.172228759539436.0843403049
18116563.034617837615008.540248678418117.5289869967
18221567.329063758819888.660193180623245.9979343371
18324243.458682857822440.639500118926046.2778655967
18426065.18677979824133.317099029427997.0564605666
18524378.295232389322419.168551216326337.4219135622
18625176.556304875923099.758889611927253.3537201399
18730040.675493974827638.712209664232442.6387782855
18826969.995832734525139.63908621228800.3525792569
 
Charts produced by software:
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/30/t1293715362inkombnxz2b6cr0/1q7mw1293715408.png (opens in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/30/t1293715362inkombnxz2b6cr0/1q7mw1293715408.ps (opens in new window)
Click here to open pdf file.


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/30/t1293715362inkombnxz2b6cr0/2q7mw1293715408.png (opens in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/30/t1293715362inkombnxz2b6cr0/2q7mw1293715408.ps (opens in new window)
Click here to open pdf file.


http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/30/t1293715362inkombnxz2b6cr0/3q7mw1293715408.png (opens in new window)
http://www.freestatistics.org/blog/date/2010/Dec/30/t1293715362inkombnxz2b6cr0/3q7mw1293715408.ps (opens in new window)
Click here to open pdf file.


 
Parameters (Session):
par1 = 12 ; par2 = Triple ; par3 = multiplicative ;
 
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 12 ; par2 = Triple ; par3 = multiplicative ;
 
R code (references can be found in the software module):