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Type 'q()' to quit R. > x <- c(17848,19592,21092,20899,25890,24965,22225,20977,22897,22785,22769,19637,20203,20450,23083,21738,26766,25280,22574,22729,21378,22902,24989,21116,15169,15846,20927,18273,22538,15596,14034,11366,14861,15149,13577,13026,13190,13196,15826,14733,16307,15703,14589,12043,15057,14053,12698,10888,10045,11549,13767,12434,13116,14211,12266,12602,15714,13742,12745,10491,10057,10900,11771,11992,11933,14504,11727,11477,13578,11555,11846,11397,10066,10269,14279,13870,13695,14420,11424,9704,12464,14301,13464,9893,11572,12380,16692,16052,16459,14761,13654,13480,18068,16560,14530,10650,11651,13735,13360,17818,20613,16231,13862,12004,17734,15034,12609,12320,10833,11350,13648,14890,16325,18045,15616,11926,16855,15083,12520,12355) > par9 = '1' > par8 = '0' > par7 = '1' > par6 = '0' > par5 = '12' > par4 = '1' > par3 = '1' > par2 = '1' > par1 = 'FALSE' > #'GNU S' R Code compiled by R2WASP v. 1.0.44 () > #Author: Prof. Dr. P. Wessa > #To cite this work: AUTHOR(S), (YEAR), YOUR SOFTWARE TITLE (vNUMBER) in Free Statistics Software (v$_version), Office for Research Development and Education, URL http://www.wessa.net/rwasp_YOURPAGE.wasp/ > #Source of accompanying publication: Office for Research, Development, and Education > #Technical description: Write here your technical program description (don't use hard returns!) > library(lattice) > if (par1 == 'TRUE') par1 <- TRUE > if (par1 == 'FALSE') par1 <- FALSE > par2 <- as.numeric(par2) #Box-Cox lambda transformation parameter > par3 <- as.numeric(par3) #degree of non-seasonal differencing > par4 <- as.numeric(par4) #degree of seasonal differencing > par5 <- as.numeric(par5) #seasonal period > par6 <- as.numeric(par6) #degree (p) of the non-seasonal AR(p) polynomial > par7 <- as.numeric(par7) #degree (q) of the non-seasonal MA(q) polynomial > par8 <- as.numeric(par8) #degree (P) of the seasonal AR(P) polynomial > par9 <- as.numeric(par9) #degree (Q) of the seasonal MA(Q) polynomial > armaGR <- function(arima.out, names, n){ + try1 <- arima.out$coef + try2 <- sqrt(diag(arima.out$var.coef)) + try.data.frame <- data.frame(matrix(NA,ncol=4,nrow=length(names))) + dimnames(try.data.frame) <- list(names,c('coef','std','tstat','pv')) + try.data.frame[,1] <- try1 + for(i in 1:length(try2)) try.data.frame[which(rownames(try.data.frame)==names(try2)[i]),2] <- try2[i] + try.data.frame[,3] <- try.data.frame[,1] / try.data.frame[,2] + try.data.frame[,4] <- round((1-pt(abs(try.data.frame[,3]),df=n-(length(try2)+1)))*2,5) + vector <- rep(NA,length(names)) + vector[is.na(try.data.frame[,4])] <- 0 + maxi <- which.max(try.data.frame[,4]) + continue <- max(try.data.frame[,4],na.rm=TRUE) > .05 + vector[maxi] <- 0 + list(summary=try.data.frame,next.vector=vector,continue=continue) + } > arimaSelect <- function(series, order=c(13,0,0), seasonal=list(order=c(2,0,0),period=12), include.mean=F){ + nrc <- order[1]+order[3]+seasonal$order[1]+seasonal$order[3] + coeff <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc) + pval <- matrix(NA, nrow=nrc*2, ncol=nrc) + mylist <- rep(list(NULL), nrc) + names <- NULL + if(order[1] > 0) names <- paste('ar',1:order[1],sep='') + if(order[3] > 0) names <- c( names , paste('ma',1:order[3],sep='') ) + if(seasonal$order[1] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sar',1:seasonal$order[1],sep='')) + if(seasonal$order[3] > 0) names <- c(names, paste('sma',1:seasonal$order[3],sep='')) + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML') + mylist[[1]] <- arima.out + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- FALSE + i <- 1 + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- 2 + aic <- arima.out$aic + while(!mystop){ + mylist[[i]] <- arima.out + arima.out <- arima(series, order=order, seasonal=seasonal, include.mean=include.mean, method='ML', fixed=last.arma$next.vector) + aic <- c(aic, arima.out$aic) + last.arma <- armaGR(arima.out, names, length(series)) + mystop <- !last.arma$continue + coeff[i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,1] + pval [i,] <- last.arma[[1]][,4] + i <- i+1 + } + list(coeff, pval, mylist, aic=aic) + } > arimaSelectplot <- function(arimaSelect.out,noms,choix){ + noms <- names(arimaSelect.out[[3]][[1]]$coef) + coeff <- arimaSelect.out[[1]] + k <- min(which(is.na(coeff[,1])))-1 + coeff <- coeff[1:k,] + pval <- arimaSelect.out[[2]][1:k,] + aic <- arimaSelect.out$aic[1:k] + coeff[coeff==0] <- NA + n <- ncol(coeff) + if(missing(choix)) choix <- k + layout(matrix(c(1,1,1,2, + 3,3,3,2, + 3,3,3,4, + 5,6,7,7),nr=4), + widths=c(10,35,45,15), + heights=c(30,30,15,15)) + couleurs <- rainbow(75)[1:50]#(50) + ticks <- pretty(coeff) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + plot(aic,k:1-.5,type='o',pch=21,bg='blue',cex=2,axes=F,lty=2,xpd=NA) + points(aic[choix],k-choix+.5,pch=21,cex=4,bg=2,xpd=NA) + title('aic',line=2) + par(mar=c(3,0,0,0)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',xlim=range(ticks),ylim=c(.1,1)) + rect(xleft = min(ticks) + (0:49)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + xright = min(ticks) + (1:50)/50*(max(ticks)-min(ticks)), + ytop = rep(1,50), + ybottom= rep(0,50),col=couleurs,border=NA) + axis(1,ticks) + rect(xleft=min(ticks),xright=max(ticks),ytop=1,ybottom=0) + text(mean(coeff,na.rm=T),.5,'coefficients',cex=2,font=2) + par(mar=c(1,1,3,1)) + image(1:n,1:k,t(coeff[k:1,]),axes=F,col=couleurs,zlim=range(ticks)) + for(i in 1:n) for(j in 1:k) if(!is.na(coeff[j,i])) { + if(pval[j,i]<.01) symb = 'green' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.05) & (pval[j,i]>=.01)) symb = 'orange' + else if( (pval[j,i]<.1) & (pval[j,i]>=.05)) symb = 'red' + else symb = 'black' + polygon(c(i+.5 ,i+.2 ,i+.5 ,i+.5), + c(k-j+0.5,k-j+0.5,k-j+0.8,k-j+0.5), + col=symb) + if(j==choix) { + rect(xleft=i-.5, + xright=i+.5, + ybottom=k-j+1.5, + ytop=k-j+.5, + lwd=4) + text(i, + k-j+1, + round(coeff[j,i],2), + cex=1.2, + font=2) + } + else{ + rect(xleft=i-.5,xright=i+.5,ybottom=k-j+1.5,ytop=k-j+.5) + text(i,k-j+1,round(coeff[j,i],2),cex=1.2,font=1) + } + } + axis(3,1:n,noms) + par(mar=c(0.5,0,0,0.5)) + plot(0,axes=F,xlab='',ylab='',type='n',xlim=c(0,8),ylim=c(-.2,.8)) + cols <- c('green','orange','red','black') + niv <- c('0','0.01','0.05','0.1') + for(i in 0:3){ + polygon(c(1+2*i ,1+2*i ,1+2*i-.5 ,1+2*i), + c(.4 ,.7 , .4 , .4), + col=cols[i+1]) + text(2*i,0.5,niv[i+1],cex=1.5) + } + text(8,.5,1,cex=1.5) + text(4,0,'p-value',cex=2) + box() + residus <- arimaSelect.out[[3]][[choix]]$res + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + acf(residus,main='') + title('acf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(1,2,4,1)) + pacf(residus,main='') + title('pacf',line=.5) + par(mar=c(2,2,4,1)) + qqnorm(residus,main='') + title('qq-norm',line=.5) + qqline(residus) + residus + } > if (par2 == 0) x <- log(x) > if (par2 != 0) x <- x^par2 > (selection <- arimaSelect(x, order=c(par6,par3,par7), seasonal=list(order=c(par8,par4,par9), period=par5))) [[1]] [,1] [,2] [1,] -0.4874959 -0.7237606 [2,] 0.0000000 -0.6699929 [3,] NA NA [4,] NA NA [[2]] [,1] [,2] [1,] 0 0 [2,] NA 0 [3,] NA NA [4,] NA NA [[3]] [[3]][[1]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ma1 sma1 -0.4875 -0.7238 s.e. 0.0966 0.1092 sigma^2 estimated as 3030497: log likelihood = -954.85, aic = 1915.7 [[3]][[2]] Call: arima(x = series, order = order, seasonal = seasonal, include.mean = include.mean, method = "ML") Coefficients: ma1 sma1 -0.4875 -0.7238 s.e. 0.0966 0.1092 sigma^2 estimated as 3030497: log likelihood = -954.85, aic = 1915.7 $aic [1] 1915.701 1929.323 > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/1hhq01292070983.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > resid <- arimaSelectplot(selection) > dev.off() null device 1 > resid Time Series: Start = 1 End = 120 Frequency = 1 [1] 10.3045444 5.9592280 5.1689600 3.6825037 7.4521462 [6] 5.3496803 2.0303895 0.6032315 2.3521211 2.0097508 [11] 1.8113579 -14.2918703 -65.7911705 -1090.2188482 430.3773283 [16] -724.3070986 -320.9278201 -610.5609808 -270.0206139 1004.8867590 [21] -2159.9444358 272.3112299 1836.3304479 294.8963030 -5036.4481863 [26] -2427.6360564 1582.4076160 -939.9494645 -1143.5857203 -5824.7594981 [31] -1771.3766643 -2848.8091716 1642.0125354 377.9577390 -2264.5667501 [36] 1630.0863507 3714.2948007 931.0516543 -145.5512622 335.6672148 [41] -2865.5805296 1324.7697993 1761.5895481 -296.6592678 1335.6388652 [46] -863.0327990 -1781.9082769 -327.3142968 755.3906071 1273.5933131 [51] -192.7548806 -51.4860460 -2970.2881720 2078.8199222 960.5256954 [56] 2506.4074693 2329.5355278 -848.8030771 -992.6827500 -549.6320535 [61] 752.5302549 352.6780519 -1732.4974514 724.5250379 -2452.0375442 [66] 2746.7568320 477.8538350 1085.9991289 307.1686005 -1296.3896012 [71] 236.4788265 1856.6835802 738.4896916 -285.6693754 1625.3297405 [76] 1284.1820457 -1490.1532737 248.3292823 -711.0478228 -1200.8985910 [81] -88.2310533 2766.3427049 845.6043175 -1452.2160676 2168.4601516 [86] 1195.0604804 2150.9569595 1171.4846859 -368.4415065 -1896.1647459 [91] 362.0377679 1104.8747841 2719.0108927 7.1005428 -1547.7228288 [96] -2401.9073543 216.7782077 1480.7301853 -2827.8244960 3801.2656096 [101] 3560.5251833 -2182.0985369 -1396.6751147 -1693.3162973 1886.8208540 [106] -1221.0129273 -2107.9597497 1370.8960727 -816.8303536 -970.3122162 [111] -365.6596103 349.2225683 44.4492439 3289.6167728 1303.2648029 [116] -1926.6213184 219.3592347 -511.9741427 -1480.0776232 1134.7532837 > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/298721292070983.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > acf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Autocorrelation Function') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/398721292070983.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > pacf(resid,length(resid)/2, main='Residual Partial Autocorrelation Function') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/420on1292070983.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > cpgram(resid, main='Residual Cumulative Periodogram') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/520on1292070983.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > hist(resid, main='Residual Histogram', xlab='values of Residuals') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/620on1292070983.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > densityplot(~resid,col='black',main='Residual Density Plot', xlab='values of Residuals') > dev.off() null device 1 > postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/720on1292070983.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) > qqnorm(resid, main='Residual Normal Q-Q Plot') > qqline(resid) > dev.off() null device 1 > ncols <- length(selection[[1]][1,]) > nrows <- length(selection[[2]][,1])-1 > > #Note: the /var/www/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab > load(file="/var/www/rcomp/createtable") > > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection', ncols+1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Iteration', header=TRUE) > for (i in 1:ncols) { + a<-table.element(a,names(selection[[3]][[1]]$coef)[i],header=TRUE) + } > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (j in 1:nrows) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + mydum <- 'Estimates (' + mydum <- paste(mydum,j) + mydum <- paste(mydum,')') + a<-table.element(a,mydum, header=TRUE) + for (i in 1:ncols) { + a<-table.element(a,round(selection[[1]][j,i],4)) + } + a<-table.row.end(a) + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,'(p-val)', header=TRUE) + for (i in 1:ncols) { + mydum <- '(' + mydum <- paste(mydum,round(selection[[2]][j,i],4),sep='') + mydum <- paste(mydum,')') + a<-table.element(a,mydum) + } + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/8g9mw1292070983.tab") > a<-table.start() > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Estimated ARIMA Residuals', 1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > a<-table.row.start(a) > a<-table.element(a,'Value', 1,TRUE) > a<-table.row.end(a) > for (i in (par4*par5+par3):length(resid)) { + a<-table.row.start(a) + a<-table.element(a,resid[i]) + a<-table.row.end(a) + } > a<-table.end(a) > table.save(a,file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/9q13h1292070983.tab") > > try(system("convert tmp/1hhq01292070983.ps tmp/1hhq01292070983.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/298721292070983.ps tmp/298721292070983.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/398721292070983.ps tmp/398721292070983.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/420on1292070983.ps tmp/420on1292070983.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/520on1292070983.ps tmp/520on1292070983.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/620on1292070983.ps tmp/620on1292070983.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > try(system("convert tmp/720on1292070983.ps tmp/720on1292070983.png",intern=TRUE)) character(0) > > > proc.time() user system elapsed 1.950 1.170 3.121