R version 2.12.0 (2010-10-15)
Copyright (C) 2010 The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
ISBN 3-900051-07-0
Platform: i486-pc-linux-gnu (32-bit)

R is free software and comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY.
You are welcome to redistribute it under certain conditions.
Type 'license()' or 'licence()' for distribution details.

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Type 'contributors()' for more information and
'citation()' on how to cite R or R packages in publications.

Type 'demo()' for some demos, 'help()' for on-line help, or
'help.start()' for an HTML browser interface to help.
Type 'q()' to quit R.

> x <- c(42.33600
+ ,42.14710
+ ,40.25640
+ ,39.18980
+ ,39.13170
+ ,38.15070
+ ,38.27070
+ ,39.13350
+ ,40.12190
+ ,41.28450
+ ,42.57490
+ ,43.90190
+ ,43.18350
+ ,43.61880
+ ,44.76240
+ ,45.19720
+ ,44.38810
+ ,43.55520
+ ,43.56780
+ ,44.21350
+ ,45.14510
+ ,45.80790
+ ,42.32820
+ ,37.89990
+ ,34.79640
+ ,35.21440
+ ,36.37270
+ ,36.25020
+ ,36.82610
+ ,36.77230
+ ,36.90420
+ ,37.04940
+ ,36.82590
+ ,36.13570
+ ,36.03000
+ ,35.79270
+ ,35.91740
+ ,35.40080
+ ,35.17230
+ ,34.92110
+ ,35.02920
+ ,34.77390
+ ,34.89990
+ ,34.90540
+ ,34.56800
+ ,34.40600
+ ,34.45780
+ ,34.73160
+ ,34.26020
+ ,33.88490
+ ,34.05490
+ ,34.27550
+ ,34.13930
+ ,34.15870
+ ,34.53860
+ ,33.79870
+ ,33.49730
+ ,33.68020
+ ,34.32840
+ ,34.15380
+ ,33.91840
+ ,34.32620
+ ,34.77500
+ ,35.01190
+ ,34.55130
+ ,34.69510
+ ,35.47300
+ ,35.97940
+ ,36.47890
+ ,36.39100
+ ,36.67040
+ ,37.41620
+ ,37.11850
+ ,36.30010
+ ,35.70020
+ ,35.58590
+ ,35.67770
+ ,35.24080
+ ,34.80160
+ ,34.43890
+ ,34.98810
+ ,36.06800
+ ,36.35660
+ ,36.12540
+ ,34.87100
+ ,35.21990
+ ,34.33900
+ ,33.82340
+ ,34.51990
+ ,35.53000
+ ,35.79660
+ ,33.84840
+ ,33.98710
+ ,34.11610
+ ,33.82350
+ ,32.45400
+ ,31.87740
+ ,31.11500
+ ,31.04360
+ ,30.88680
+ ,31.30010
+ ,30.05070
+ ,28.67990
+ ,27.64380
+ ,27.23940
+ ,26.85490
+ ,27.01580
+ ,26.91880
+ ,26.49660
+ ,26.78500
+ ,26.83980
+ ,26.44780
+ ,25.17280
+ ,24.87840
+ ,25.40150
+ ,25.77160
+ ,26.11810
+ ,26.3969
+ ,26.65710
+ ,25.18390
+ ,23.83940
+ ,23.86190
+ ,24.25810
+ ,25.10980
+ ,26.16170
+ ,26.80870
+ ,25.65770
+ ,27.09820
+ ,27.46650
+ ,28.28900
+ ,28.69330
+ ,27.24010
+ ,27.27980
+ ,27.64040
+ ,26.83100
+ ,26.24670
+ ,25.22120
+ ,25.36530
+ ,26.25920
+ ,27.22790
+ ,26.33150
+ ,25.89810
+ ,26.68980)
> par3 = 'additive'
> par2 = 'Single'
> par1 = '12'
> par1 <- 5
> if (par2 == 'Single') K <- 1
> if (par2 == 'Double') K <- 2
> if (par2 == 'Triple') K <- par1
> nx <- length(x)
> nxmK <- nx - K
> x <- ts(x, frequency = par1)
> if (par2 == 'Single') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=F, beta=F)
> if (par2 == 'Double') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=F)
> if (par2 == 'Triple') fit <- HoltWinters(x, seasonal=par3)
> fit
Holt-Winters exponential smoothing without trend and without seasonal component.

Call:
 HoltWinters(x = x, beta = F, gamma = F) 

Smoothing parameters:
 alpha:  0.99994 
 beta :  FALSE 
 gamma:  FALSE 

Coefficients:
      [,1]
a 26.68975
> myresid <- x - fit$fitted[,'xhat']
> postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/1kqst1292011454.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> op <- par(mfrow=c(2,1))
> plot(fit,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Interpolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing')
> plot(myresid,ylab='Residuals',main='Interpolation Prediction Errors')
> par(op)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/2kqst1292011454.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> p <- predict(fit, par1, prediction.interval=TRUE)
> np <- length(p[,1])
> plot(fit,p,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Extrapolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing')
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> postscript(file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/3disf1292011454.ps",horizontal=F,onefile=F,pagecentre=F,paper="special",width=8.3333333333333,height=5.5555555555556) 
> op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2))
> acf(as.numeric(myresid),lag.max = nx/2,main='Residual ACF')
> spectrum(myresid,main='Residals Periodogram')
> cpgram(myresid,main='Residal Cumulative Periodogram')
> qqnorm(myresid,main='Residual Normal QQ Plot')
> qqline(myresid)
> par(op)
> dev.off()
null device 
          1 
> 
> #Note: the /var/www/rcomp/createtable file can be downloaded at http://www.wessa.net/cretab
> load(file="/var/www/rcomp/createtable")
> 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing',2,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Value',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'alpha',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,fit$alpha)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'beta',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,fit$beta)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'gamma',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,fit$gamma)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/4z0821292011454.tab") 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Observed',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Fitted',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Residuals',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in 1:nxmK) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,i+K,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,x[i+K])
+ a<-table.element(a,fit$fitted[i,'xhat'])
+ a<-table.element(a,myresid[i])
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/52jpq1292011454.tab") 
> a<-table.start()
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> a<-table.row.start(a)
> a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'Forecast',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% Lower Bound',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.element(a,'95% Upper Bound',header=TRUE)
> a<-table.row.end(a)
> for (i in 1:np) {
+ a<-table.row.start(a)
+ a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
+ a<-table.element(a,p[i,'fit'])
+ a<-table.element(a,p[i,'lwr'])
+ a<-table.element(a,p[i,'upr'])
+ a<-table.row.end(a)
+ }
> a<-table.end(a)
> table.save(a,file="/var/www/rcomp/tmp/6njne1292011454.tab") 
> 
> try(system("convert tmp/1kqst1292011454.ps tmp/1kqst1292011454.png",intern=TRUE))
character(0)
> try(system("convert tmp/2kqst1292011454.ps tmp/2kqst1292011454.png",intern=TRUE))
character(0)
> try(system("convert tmp/3disf1292011454.ps tmp/3disf1292011454.png",intern=TRUE))
character(0)
> 
> 
> proc.time()
   user  system elapsed 
  1.120   0.340   1.454